Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Sea Level Rise and Surfing

Surf's up!  So is sea level.  So how is that going to work out?

We know sea level is currently rising at 3.5 mm per year.  That means sea level will rise by about 3.5 cm in 10 years and about 35 cm (about a foot) in a century. 

But what if the RATE  of sea level rise is increasing?  What if sea level was rising by about 1mm each year 50 years ago and the RATE of sea rise progressively increased to the 3.5 mm per year we see now. 

Well, then an intelligent person might be concerned that the RATE of sea level rise would continue to increase.   If the RATE triples again over the next 50 years then the RATE will be 10 mm per year or about 4 inches each decade.  

But what if the rate of increase in the rate of sea level change is also increasing?  What if global warming is accelerating?  

We'll be in deep water, that's what....

Deeper water means changes in surf.  Waves break and form surf when the wave forms come into contact with the sea floor.  Higher sea levels will produce changes in the location and size of surf breaks

Surf will still be up....just not so much

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