Climate Change Kooks Fall Out

                                                              Kook vs. Kook

There is an old saying "thieves fall out".  It means that people who are by nature thieves will find it difficult to cooperate with other thieves---their instincts have a nasty habit of taking over and they wind up stealing the loot from each other.  Lots of  movies play on this theme, including a film noir classic from the 1930s entitled "Thieves Fall Out" and a made-for-TV movie from the 1980s entitled "When Thieves Fall Out".  Jessica Fletcher solved a murder mystery in Cabot Cove during an episode entitled "When Thieves Fall Out."  The same idea occurs in hundreds of heist movies like "The Italian Job", "Snatch" "Lock Stock" and Two Smoking Barrels" and "A Simple Plan."  Some of these movies are classics---- who doesn't love watching a movie where thieves try to outwit one-another?  The "thieves fall out" idea even shows up in Samurai movies like "Yojimbo" and its a common theme in Western movies ---think of any of the Clint Eastward "Man with no Name" movies. 

Everybody expects thieves to fall out.  But what about kooks?  Do people with weird and bizarre ideas rub along OK with other when they get together, or do kooks fall out the same way thieves fall out?

There is popular late night radio show in the United States called "Coast to Coast" which features an endless parade of people who claim to talk to ghosts, take spaceship rides with aliens, travel through time, have inside knowledge of secret societies out to control the world, etc., etc.  By any measure these people are kooks, and you'd think all these folks would have a hard time getting along, but its amazing how people who think the pyramids in Egypt were built by space aliens have nothing but nice things to say about people who think the pyramids in Egypt were built by time travelers.   These folks all manage to be patient and considerate with one-another,  in spite of their wildly different views.

But climate change kooks aren't quite as agreeable as time travelers and space aliens.   Recently people from "Geoengineering Watch" who believe that a secret cabal of scientists is already secretly geoengineering the earth's climate to intentionally create global warming met with some people from the "Near Term Human Extinction" movement who believe that global warming is going to be so severe that the human race will go extinct in the very near future.  You'd think these two groups would find some common ground, but they very quickly fell out over their view of the future.  Geoengineering Watch maintains that if only the secret lair of the secret cabal of scientists who are supposedly already secretly geoengineering earth's climate can be discovered, then their nefarious scheme can be stopped in time to save the earth.  This was unacceptable to the people in the Near Term Human Extinction moment, who have already give up all hope and resigned themselves to their imminent demise.  

Personally, I hope these two groups meet again and again to work things out.  Surely people who have convinced themselves that the world is about to end and humans will go extinct can find room to blame it all on a secret cabal of scientists, and surely people who believe that a secret cabal of scientists hidden in a secret lair are secretly destroying the earth's climate can see their way to believing that imminent doom is upon them.  These two groups have much to learn from one-another.

Unpleasant Surprise in the Greenhouse?

Prof.  Wally Broecker is an extremely prolific scientist who first came up with the term "Global Warming" and who first described many of the global oceanic processes that control climate variability on the earth.  In 1987 Prof. Broecker wrote a scientific paper entitled "Unpleasant Surprises in the Greenhouse"  that introduced the idea that continued global warming might result in unexpected abrupt shifts in global climate, rather than a slow steady progressive warming. 

One of Prof. Broecker's greatest concerns was that the thermohaline circulation system (also known as the global conveyer belt) might break down.  The  thermohaline circulation system is a global system of both surface and submarine oceanic currents that begins when cold, dense ocean water near Greenland and Antarctic sinks into the ocean and gives rise to deep ocean currents that travel from the poles to the equator.   These deep ocean currents are connected by upwelling to warm surface currents like the Gulf Stream, creating a global ocean circulation system.

Broecker hypothesized that global warming might reduce the amount of deep ocean water being produced off Greenland, weakening and perhaps even stopping the thermohaline circulation system.   This could produce large abrupt climate changes in northern Europe and elsewhere.  The science fiction move "The Day After" was very loosely based on this idea, although the effects of a thermohaline shut down were greatly exaggerated.

Yesterday I wrote about the record warm temperatures seen during the winter of 2014-15.  While almost the entire world was seeing above average temperatures, parts of the north Atlantic Ocean just south of Greenland are curiously colder then average.  Why is this happening---why is this particular region cooling down when almost the entire rest of the planet is warming?

Some scientists are suggesting that the curious cooling seen south of Greenland is a clear sign that the global thermohaline circulation system is weakening right now.   That doesn't mean that the global thermohaline circulation system is going to stop today, but it does raise concerns that it might stop soon---perhaps even the day after tomorrow.

W.S. Broecker, “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?”, Nature, vol. 328, pp. 123-126, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/328123a0 

Winter 2014-15 was the Warmest Ever Recorded

                                                                 The earth is currently hot hot hot

The winter of 2014-15 was the warmest on record worldwide, according to the state of the climate report released by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Wednesday.
The winter (defined by NOAA as the months of December, January and February) was 1.42 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th-century average, just a touch above the previous warmest winter which occurred in 2007.   December 2014 was the warmest December on record, while January and February 2015 were the second warmest winter months on record.

It was the warmest winter ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere.  Exceptionally high temperatures were recorded in the Western USA, central Asia, the central and southwest Pacific Ocean, Southern Europe, Greenland, Madagascar, Brazil and the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and especially the western Atlantic off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada.

Only a few areas on the globe saw temperatures below their 20th average.  These include New England and the east coast of the USA, part of the Atlantic Ocean southeast of Greenland, and parts of the southeastern Pacific Ocean. 

Unfortunately the weather station and satellite data used by NOAA to construct their global temperature map do not cover high latitudes in either the northern or southern hemisphere, but here in Alaska we had an exceptionally warm winter, with the Iditarod dog sled being forced to shift the race course from south-central to central Alaska in order to find enough snow for the dog sleds to run.   

All indications are that the record warmth seen in 2014 is continuing, and a new record for global temperatures may well be set in 2015 as well.

                          Ruff ruff global warming bow wow iditarod ruff no snow ruff ruff

The End of Nature

                                              "The End of Nature" by Bill McKibben (1989)

In 1989 Bill McKibben wrote an important book entitled "The End of Nature." The premise of this book is that human-caused global warming is affecting a wide range of natural processes on our planet to the point that the weather and many other natural processes on earth aren't strictly "natural" anymore.

As Global Warming progresses this will become more self-apparent, but it's already true. The temperature everywhere on earth is slightly different then it would be if human use of fossil fuels hadn't increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere by 40%. The weather is also no longer entirely "natural", so that every single rainstorm and every sunny day is different then it would have been without human influence on the climate. Sea level is higher then it would be "naturally", so every single wave that comes into the shore is slightly different then it would naturally be.

This is a dramatically different way of looking at climate change then that adopted by most scientists. Scientists generally soft-pedal the idea that any particular storm or snowstorm or heatwave or drought is "caused" by global warming.

But that shouldn't be the question----its clearly impossible to show direct casuality between increasing CO2 in the atmosphere and any individual weather event. The question should actually be whether or not an extreme weather event is affected by global warming. And the answer to that question should be a resounding yes.

For example, Cyclone Pam in March 2015 in Vanuatu or Hurricane Sandy that hit the east coast of the US in the fall of 2012---you can't prove that either storm was "caused" by global warming. But there is no doubt that huge size of these storms reflects global warming. Warmer temperatures in the atmosphere and the oceans driven by Global Warming provide more energy to power large storms, and these storms were unusually large because of the very warm conditions created by global warming. The Atlantic Ocean was unusually warm during the creation of Superstorm Sandy off the eastern coast of the US in the fall of 2012, and Cyclone Pam's large size and intense energy are products of the warm conditions produced by global warming in the western Pacific Ocean during March 2015.

McKibben explained this idea very clearly 25 years ago in his book:

"If the waves crash up against the beach, eroding dunes and destroying homes, it is not the awesome power of Mother Nature. It is the awesome power of Mother Nature as altered by the awesome power of man, who has overpowered in a century the processes that have been slowly evolving and changing of their own accord since the earth was born."

We can't say that global warming is "causing" individual hurricanes and cyclones, but we can say that global warming is producing oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make hurricanes and cyclones bigger and more powerful then they would otherwise be.

Permafrost---It's Goin' To Be A Long Time Gone

                                           Computer model showing Permafrost shrinking 
                            and then completely disappearing from the Arctic by the year 2300, 
                                     and releasing huge amounts of carbon to the atmosphere


Does anyone remember that old Crosby Stills Nash and Young song from 1969 called "Long Time Gone."  That song is all about permafrost.   No, really---just look at the lyrics:

It's been a long time comin'     

It's goin' to be a long time gone

You can smell somethin' burnin'     

But you don't know who lit the fire

You can feel pavement getting' hotter     

You can see flames as high

There's somethin' goin' on around here     

That surely, surely won't stand the light of day

Speak out, speak out against the madness     

Speak your mind if you dare

It's been a long time comin'   

It's goin' to be a long time gone

But you know that the darkest hour     

Is always just before the dawn

Crosby Still Nash and Young's lament about the future of permafrost perfectly captures the scientific issues. Permafrost is a long time coming---it forms in the soil in the Arctic after millennia of cold temperatures. Permafrost in northern Alaska is as much as 800 m (2400 feet) thick, and in northern Siberia it reaches thicknesses of 1200 m (3600 feet). These extremely thick zones of permafrost probably took several million years to form.

And when Global Warming heats the Arctic to the point that the last Permafrost melts, it will be a long time gone. Permafrost is already warming and thawing along its southern margin in Alaska and Siberia. The southern margin of the permafrost zone will move north and the total area with permafrost will shrink until by the year 2300 the last permafrost will melt.  

So why care about permafrost? If you live in the Arctic the coming thaw of permafrost means the landscape will literally melt and shrink around you. Roads will buckle and homes and buildings will tilt and crack as the soil thaws under them. Frozen seacoasts will melt into the sea and coastlines will rapidly retreat.

If you don't live in the Arctic thawing permafrost will affect you too, as millions of tons of carbon are frozen in permafrost in Arctic soils. As the permafrost thaws, all that carbon will be released into the atmosphere, magnifying the Greenhouse effect and accelerating Global Warming around the rest of the planet.

Speak out, speak out against the madness. Global Warming will be a huge disaster for the entire planet. You can smell somethin' burnin'  But you don't know who lit the fire  You can feel pavement getting' hotter  You can see flames as high.  

Something must be done.   Speak your mind if you dare.

And don't lose hope. Never lose hope. There is always a chance that my CO2 Antarctic Pumpdown concept or one of the other geoengineering ideas already put forward or perhaps a new one yet to be devised will be able to counteract Global Warming. Don't lose hope and remember----the darkest hour is always just before the dawn.

Consider the Gravity of the Sea Level Situation

                                                    Effects of a 5 m sea level rise on the southeastern United States

It seems like every few months there is another announcement that this or that glacier in Greenland or Antarctic is melting because of global warming and sea level is going to go up an additional 0.3 m (1 foot) or 3 m (10 feet) or 30 m (100 feet) by the time its all over.  But there is another curious factor involved in determining just how high sea level will rise, and thats gravity.

Most people accept that gravity is pulling objects toward the center of earth---even climate change skeptics are familiar with that much science.  But not as well known is the fact that mountains and even continents exert a gravitational force on every thing around them so that things are pulled ever-so-slightly sideways by gravity towards the nearest mountain range, or if you're on a boat there is a tiny gravitational attraction being exerted by the nearest land standing above the ocean.

For the most part these lateral gravitational forces are small and are safely ignored, but if something really large like part of a continent could rapidly appear or disappear on the surface of the earth, then this would abruptly change the lateral effects of gravity in significant ways.

Huge amounts of glacier ice are projected to melt and disappear from Antartica and Greenland over the next few hundred years, and this will reduce their gravitational attraction on nearby parts of the ocean.  By far the largest effect will be felt around Antartica, where so much ice will melt over the next several centuries that it is estimated that local sea level in the surrounding Southern Ocean will fall by about 3 m.  And where will all that extra ocean water go after the ice melt?  Geophysical models suggest it will be distributed mostly to the northern hemisphere, where it will cause sea level around the shoreline of North America to rise about 3 m (10 feet) higher then the ocean would reach just due to ice melt alone.

Of course it will take several hundred years for global warming to melt enough ice from the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to cause sea level to rise by 25-30 m (75-100 feet).  By that time sea level rise will have destroyed so many coastal cities in the U.S. and around the world that having the ocean go another 3 m (10 feet) higher in the northern hemisphere due to the reduced gravitational attraction on seawater around Antarctica will probably be seen as no big deal.

New York City --- the Venice of North America!

                                           New York City is on track to be the Venice of North America!

In 2014 studies showed that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was being destablized by warm ocean currents coming up under the tidewater glaciers.  The warm water was melting the base of the glacier, and causing the grounding line to retreat inwards towards the center of the ice sheet.  However, because the submarine topography below the glaciers  tilts downwards toward the center of the ice sheet, this creates an instability that will lead to the total collapse of the ice sheet, and a sea level rise of about 3 m (ca. 10 feet).

Now a new study shows that at least part of the much larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet is being destabilized in the exact same way.  The drainage basin of the Totten Glacier in East Antarctic is beginning to be affected by warm ocean currents melting the tidewater portion of the glacier, resulting in a thinning glacier, faster glacier flow, and an increase in the rate at which ice is being dumped into the sea.   These processes will eventually cause sea level to rise by another ca. 3 m.  

Combine the water from these two Ice Sheets with water from the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and the earth is now on track for 8-10 m (25-30 feet) of sea level rise.

The projected loss of glacier ice from Greenland and Antarctica and the concomitant sea level rise of 8-10 m (25-30 feet) will take hundreds of years to complete.  However, it is disquieting that the assurances given just a couple of years ago that the Antarctic sheet was stable and secure are now shown to be completely wrong, and the cumulative potential for sea level rise from melting parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and East Antarctic Ice is becoming distressingly large.  

Now that we know we are on track for up to 10 m (30 feet) of sea level rise in a few hundred years, the possibility that we may see 1-3 m (3-9 feet) of sea level rise by the end of this century becomes quite a bit more likely.  

Is it too early to apply for the gondola concession in New York City?

                       And on your right we are now passing the New York Stock Exchange Building!