What can we learn from the Kyoto UN Climate Treaty--Part One

The Kyoto Protocol was a UN-sponsored Treaty signed in December 1997 in Japan.  The Kyoto Protocol came into force in 2005, and expired in 2012.  Nations who signed the treaty agreed to try to make modest targets for CO2 reduction.  Several third world nations, most prominently China and India, participated in the treaty negotiations, but were not made parties to the treaty, as it was felt that asking underdeveloped countries to reduce or even limit the growth of their CO2 production would be an economic hardship, even if the CO2 reduction targets were non-binding.

Its interesting to look at global CO2 production since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997.  The data in the figure above shows that for the EU CO2 production declined at a rate of almost 2% per year after the Kyoto Protocol was signed.  However, the decline in EU CO2 production actually began in 1980, and therefore probably as much due to long term trends in increasing efficiency for cars and other manufacturing in the EU as it does with any specific actions related to the Treaty.  US CO2 production also shows a strong decline after 2009 even though the US never signed the Kyoto Accords.   The US decline is clearly due to the post-2009 economic slowdown.   

But the largest change in CO2 production after the Kyoto Accords was signed occurred in China.  CO2 production exploded there, swamping all  the small reductions in CO2 made by the US and EU.  

Looking back, it is clear the Kyoto UN climate treaty failed to stop or even slow the delivery of CO2 to the atmosphere because it did not include China.  Clearly any future climate agreements must include limits on CO2 emissions from China and other developing economic powerhouses in the third world, as well as limits on CO2 production from the EU and US.